Ike 9PM Update

Ike is 600 miles wide. Hurricane warnings are in effect for more than 400 miles of Texas and Louisiana coast. Water in Galveston is rising at a rate of more than an inch every two minutes. A tornado watch is in effect for the Greater Houston and southeast Texas areas until 10AM. This is only the beginning. The Coast Guard has rescued 60 people and at least 12 high water rescues have been made on Galveston Island. Due to night fall and increasingly severe weather, no more rescues will be attempted tonight, however, authorities ask that you still report any emergency situations to 911. Cell phone carriers are recommending customers to text rather than make voice calls to avoid overloading area cell towers. Authorities are asking all residents staying in Galveston to write their SSN on their forearm in case of the worst. Depending on your location, curfew goes until at least 7AM and as late as 10AM for some areas. The exception is Galveston County where the curfew is in effect from 5PM until dawn Sunday. Fire crews are reporting a large fire in west Galveston jumping from house to house. They have been unable to reach it and expect it will burn through the night. Centerpoint Energy is reporting 200,000 power outages. The Texas Governor believes Ike could be a $100Billion storm. Finally, if you are in the effected area, the American Red Cross provides a service to allow you to reassure and find your loved ones. You can find more information at http://www.safeandwell.org. Stay safe.

Ike 8PM Update

Ike is still out there. I know... I'm ready for bed too. It looks to be a long night here in the tracking center, but we are here for the duration. FEMA has confirmed just over 600,000 people have evacuated, but estimates as least 90,000 ignored the warnings and stayed. They also estimate at least 100,000 homes will be flooded. Galveston's Ball High School has been set up as a "last resort" shelter for those who stayed, however, no rescues will be made after 9PM. All power is out on Galveston Island now. The latest update, Ike is 70 miles from Galveston, still a Cat 2 with 110mph winds, and moving toward Galveston at 14mph. We are past the time for evacuations. We are past the time for rescues. The news tomorrow morning will be horrific. The case for complacency will be made. I imagine our next update will include landfall. Stay safe.

Ike 7PM Update and Surge Map

Storm Surge Map; area will flood in a:

Pink: Category 1 storm

Yellow: Category 2 storm

Green: Category 3 storm

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We have seen some strengthening and it still looks like Ike will be Cat 3. The outer eyewall is expected to make landfall by 8PM, the inner eyewall by 10PM, and the center by 1AM. Currently, Ike is a Cat 2 with winds of 110mph about 98 miles from Galveston. Storm surge is expected to continue rising through 3AM with a total of at least 20ft. In addition, at least 15in of rain is expected as well. Due to the size of the storm and the specific wind directions, surge water in Galveston may not begin to recede until late Saturday. Reports from the NWS and local authorities are ominous; residents riding out the storm in single story dwellings "face certain death". High winds have halted all off-shore Coast Guard rescue operations and we have heard unconfirmed reports from KHOU-TV, in the Galveston area, of people trapped on their roofs. Due to the weather conditions, local authorities have been unable to even check out these reports. Last we heard, most of Galveston still has power and cell phone service, but authorities expect as many as 5Million power outages. As Ike comes in we will continue to see an increased tornado threat. It is estimated that up to 40 percent of Galveston residents are riding out Ike. Our prayers are with them.

Ike 6PM Update

We still expect Ike may make it to Cat 3 before landfall early Saturday morning. We are watching the Galveston area especially close. We have been busy in the tracking center, monitoring local media outlets and public service radios from the Galveston area. The major concern right now is still flooding due to storm surge. Area police estimate as many as 30 percent of the homes along the coast may still be occupied. We have been listening to boat and helicopter rescues of people who woke up this morning to high water and others who thought they could ride out Ike. The message from Emergency Management; Get out! The Galveston area is already seeing sustained winds of 50mph and gusts of 70+mph. Flooding has been reported up to a half mile inland already. There are an estimated 10,000 without power on Galveston Island alone. Depending on the location, curfew goes into effect between 7pm and midnight for all areas. Finally, we have just heard the first damage estimates of $7Billion. This is a serious storm folks. We will try to get some storm surge maps uploaded. Our next update will be by 8PM. Stay safe.

Tracking Center Working Hard already

The C4L Tracking Center is busy already with Ike reaking havoc throughout the Gulf Coast states and we plan on staying with this storm throughout the night.

Time is running out for Texas as Ike is making its way closer. Although Ike is still a Category 2, its size and strength is still a major issue right now and we still expect Ike to gain some strength before making landfall in the middle of the night. Storm surge from Ike will probably be larger than that oif Katrina which poses a serious problem for those along the Texas coastline not to mention Galveston which is sure to take a horrific hit. Already water is pounding the Galveston coastline and SeaWall Blvd. is inundated.

We will begin to set updates here hourly later this afternoon.

Friday night looking to be brutal

Well, Jim Cantore is in Galveston and changed from his now-familiar black suit to the tight black tee...a bad sign for any city. As I watched him interview the Mayor of Galveston this evening, I chuckled as she ended the conversation by saying she was happy to see him in her town! Obviously she doesn't know how bad it really is when Jim shows up in a t-shirt.

Seriously, preparations are being made to make sure the C4L Tracking Center is ready for tomorrow night.

It has been a long day for those in Texas and things are not much better in Louisiana either. With some dry air off the west side of the Gulf, Ike has stayed a Cat 2 for now but by morning we should see a Cat 3 on its way to being a strong Cat 3 before it makes landfall near Galveston. Already coastal waves are near 9 feet and evacuations seem to be going smoothly according to the Mayor of the sea-bound city; an estimated 75% of the city having evacuated but is it enough?

I doubt it.

Galveston has a population of about 57,000. This means that 14,000 people could be staring out into the darkness tomorrow night as the ocean overcomes their city.

Once Ike nears Galveston, we will know for sure wether or not our predictions were correct; that Ike will strike just south and west of Galveston allowing that dangerous front quarter to raise sea level well beyond not only the sea wall but above the highest point on the island which is only 22 feet above sea level.

We have a lot to contend with here when it comes to surge: first, the winds inside of Ike mixed with the barometric pressure will create a strong surge; second, the storm should arrive just as high tide comes in the middle of Friday night raising sea levels even more.

With over 5 million people just the other side of galveston, evacuations, while running well may not be running well enough as Army Corps of Engineers models show a complete flooding of Galveston and much of the coastal inland.

Once again we are seeing folks simply taping windows and planning on staying, but the City of Galveston is taking a strong stance insisting that there will be no services offered or available for anyone choosing to stay.

Since I know firsthand what it is like to live on an island surrounded by coastal waterway and ocean, I also know how vulnerable you suddenly become with a storm bearing down on you, so I cannot believe folks are staying in Galveston. Should Ike cop an attitude and turn into a Cat 4 before landfall, we could be looking at a storm the likes of which we have only seen on "It Could Happen Tomorrow"!

Even as a Cat 3, this storm is looking like it will be the twin of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane (see earlier blogs) that killed between 6000 and 12000 people.

Our prayers arewith those that are in harm's way for sure.

As they say at the news desk, in other news...

Watch the gas pump prices now as prices have already jumped as much as 30% down south with 96% of the crude business shut down and over 70% of natural gas production has been shut down in the region.

Louisiana is taking a beating again from Ike with surge already effecting the lower parishes and we got a phone call from the Bootheel of Missouri about two hours ago about a series of reported tornadoes near Cabool and Springfield.

Speaking of tornadoes, we will be busy in the C4L Tracking Center starting tomorrow as we staff the center in full to track Ike and the tornadoes that are sure to follow him ashore late tomorrow night. Hopefully we can get the Tracking Center up on KHAS, but if not, stay here checking in and we will continue to post updates and we will attempt to post photos of the tracking center and its staff throughout the night.

If you are in the lower parishes of Louisiana, the coastal areas of Mississippi or near Galveston, please contact us at info@chasing4life.org and make sure you leave us your name, contact numbers and location and we will assign a tracker from the Center to stay in touch with you throughout the next 48 hours or so.

Special thanks to Jeff Masters for the surge model info he provided us yesterday.

REMEMBER

I will be posting several times over the next few days about hurricane Ike, but for this morning, we will focus on something else. Storms like the one Texas is about to experience create heroes and for weeks to come we will hear stories of neighbors helping neighbors, stories of the Coast Guard; stories of Responders; stories of courage...of sacrifice...of determination and of love.

Today we will remember the heroes of September 11, 2001, for today is the anniversary of the day many heroes stepped into eternity answering the call of duty

Today is truly a day of remembrance and reflection for my family. I remember it all as clearly as if it were only yesterday… I was a little over 80 miles from my home at a small diner when the cook came out of the kitchen, his face ashen; his eyes full of tears. Speechless, he motioned to the few customers in the diner to follow him into the kitchen where a small television sat above the grill. We watched in horror as the second plane struck

My home was at the north end of Patrick Air Force Base, and it was several agonizing hours before I could reach my family, and several more before I could make it through the roadblocks and barricades that were immediately set up throughout our region.

For many, the attacks were a thing of television news, but for my family it was a reality that lasted forever as we were surrounded by military for a year, driving through checkpoints to simply go to the store; everyday reminded that our country had been deemed vulnerable. Now, years later, we still remember. We are a firefighter family, and I am the son of a career firefighter. The loss of that day hit close to home, and we felt it our very core.

I wonder today if we really remember. Sure, we have a moment of silence and President Bush will make speeches… the TV will run the saga in drama form and the networks will air every movie made about that day, but do we REALLY remember?

Politics aside, we received a call that day- every one of us. It was a call to be alert, to be prepared, and to support those that live their lives within the shadow of another day like that one. Will you stop today to thank a cop or a firefighter for what they do? Will you take a moment out of your lunch hour to stop by the local fire hall just to say “Thanks for what you do”?

Will you stop sometime tonight between your favorite shows to discuss with your family a communication plan for disasters? Will you stop for a moment today and simply hug your wife, your husband or your kids just because they are there?

There is much to remember today and much to pray about. Hurricane Ike is about to attack our coastline, and I will guarantee you that there are men and women of the same caliber as those that were lost on 9-11 that are waiting for Ike to strike so that they can do what they do.

Eternal God, amidst all the turmoil and changes of our world, we know that you are constant, our firm foundation in the midst of every storm and upheaval. Be with those that still grieve the loss of loved ones lost on that dark day, bless with Your mighty hand those that still stand in defense of our lives, and protect those about to face yet another threat as they answer the call of duty. Bring to our minds the sacrifices of these men and women and give us an extra measure of understanding and appreciation. May our leaders walk in your wisdom this week as we walk in generosity that is sure to be needed. Help us, Lord, to remember what it means to be Americans, help us to remember today what it sometimes takes to be an American, and remind us to pray for those that in uniforms at the ready because they never forget these things. Help us to remember to cherish our country, our freedom and our families as we remember those about to courageously face yet more adversity.

Ike to be a Cat 3 or 4

Hurricane Ike is definitely intensifying, and sometime tomorrow I will post predictions and some links so that you can all take a look at what could be historical storm surge in Texas sometime early Saturday morning as Ike makes landfall a at least a Cat 3 if not a 4!

I have been watching The Weather Channel most of the day and have seen several commercials for SAFETY during flooding, yet have also seen an unbelievable amount of footage of people standing, jumping and riding bicycles in flood waters from Ike!

People, PLEASE stay out of flood waters. I wish that footage of people this stupid would not be aired, but unfortunately seems to be good news content today. Hopefully you are not too easily influenced by the shirtless/witless few that seem to be dominating today's storm footage.

History Lesson

Missing most of the Cuba that would have weakened him considerably, Ike is still a pretty good looking hurricane and I expect will be impressing us even more by Wednesday evening when we expect the C4L Tracking Center will be really humming in expectation of a landfall that still remains fairly vague.

Like we discussed with Gustav, the Loop Current Eddy is going to play a role along with warmer temps and minimal shear; everything is in favor of Ike becoming a major hurricane.

The models are now showing Ike as a Cat 1 in Texas at landfall, but we are leaning toward a major hurricane at landfall based on water temps and surrounding conditions.

As for landfall location, I am not sold on the Texas targets being shown just yet; there is a loop current and a loop current eddy side by side that Ike will be encountering that I still think will shift him a tad bit northward than the models are showing. Texas should hope I am right as the coastline the models are forecasting as Ike’s target are extremely susceptible to large storm surge. I remember looking at the animated models for storm surge in Galveston during 2005 and was amazed at the projected flooding a simple hurricane can cause there. 9 out of 10 people that die in a hurricane are killed by storm surges. In 1900, the Galveston Hurricane struck as a Cat 4 and killed between 6000 and 12,000 people making it the deadliest hurricane to ever hit the United States.

There is in existence film of this storm, reportedly the OLDEST motion picture film of an occurrence like this in existence today.

Another cool fact? It was filmed by Thomas Edison’s employees!

Ike and Jindal

Hurricane Ike has it’s attention on Cuba right now, but that won’t last long and it’s gonna be a ll about WHERE and WHEN for the United States.

While Ike continues to move west, the models are showing Ike making a northward turn, possibly heading toward New Orleans like his brother Gustav. The turn to the north and west is expected on Monday. While Ike is expected to weaken over Cuba and not strengthen again until it reaches mid-Gulf, my gut is telling me that he could strengthen a lot quicker and not only surpass estimated strength of a mere Cat 1, but actually strike against the Keys much stronger, even a Cat 3 and then surprise everyone by ignoring models and curving inward toward the north Fort Meyers area.

If this does not happen, and Ike follows models, I put it as a threat to the Louisiana Coastline at the end of the week as a Cat 3 if nor a 4.

Time is going to tell us a bit more, so sorry for being vague, but hey, it’s only Sunday!

I am not the only one thinking this way obviously....

Gov. Bobby Jindal told a news conference that he has issued a state of emergency in preparation for the effects of Ike, which could bring tropical storm force winds to the area near the mouth of the Mississippi River by early Friday.

By the way, if I have not said enough on the subject, Mr. Jindal, you are my choice for President after proving yourself to be decisive and able to control a difficult situation. Wonderful job last week, and I wish you the very, very best in the coming weeks as you recover from Gustav and deal with Ike.

Jindal’s emergency declaration will allow state and federal hurricane-assistance assets to remain in place and more to arrive, and would allow the state to keep out-of-state National Guard troops on duty in Louisiana for a longer time. The number of non-Louisiana troops was not available late Sunday.

Jindal said he has also requested FEMA and the U.S. Department of Defense to supply gas-filled tankers that could function as mobile service stations along or near major evacuation routes to help motorists keep gas in their tanks if called on to evacuate again.

Talks involve evacuations beginning as early as Tuesday!


As of Sunday about 30 percent of the service stations in the state were still closed, many because of a lack of power to get gas pumps operating. Jindal said that the state was expected to have 200 generators purchased by today. The generators will be used at pharmacies, groceries, service stations and ice houses to provide needed power to help the state get back to normal as soon as possible.

Again…the man has a plan!

About 19 percent of the state, almost 380,000 businesses and homes, were without power Sunday afternoon. The governor said he was concerned about residents developing hurricane evacuation fatigue, especially coastal residents who may be uprooted again after just returning home.

Ike Update

Ike re-intensified as expected and is now a Cat 4. The shear that was battling Ike has now diminished and allowed Ike to regain strength and get down to business… the business of heading toward the Gulf and now possibly toward New Orleans!

All the models are in agreement on ike hitting Cuba Sunday night but after that they start to disagree as always. From what I see at this time, a sweeping curve toward Grand Isle is quite possible. Steering currents are weaker right now in the Gulf which could leave Ike off the Florida coast in a stall that would certainly cause problems for Florida’s west coast and will also make prediction of landfall difficult.

Any way you look at it, with the waters warmer and shear at a low, Ike will gain strength after visiting the islands and will definitely be a threat to the Gulf Coast states within 2 days.

Hanna Landfall

Tropical Storm Hanna is making landfall now as we watch her in the C4L Tracking Center.

A tropical storm, almost a hurricane, Hanna is dumping rain with winds of over 70 MPH.
As I told one of our Chasing4Life supporters in Clayton, North Carolina yesterday…prepare for the storms, the water, power outages and tornadoes.

The center of Hanna should be moving across eastern North Carolina early this morning and across the mid-Atlantic coast later Saturday and Saturday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including all of Chesapeake Bay, Washington, DC, New York Harbor and Long Island sound. This means that Hanna is expected to sweep through the warning area within the next 24 hours.

The District of Columbia activated its emergency operations center at noon today in preparation for Hanna. The Department of Public Works is distributing sandbags to residents who experience flooding during heavy rains.

DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Director Darrell Darnell is urging citizens to clear gutters, drains and downspouts and remove or secure any loose objects such as lawn furniture or barbecue grills from their yards, as they may become projectiles during high winds.
Coast Guard units throughout New England are pre-staging their crews and equipment and warning mariners in anticipation of severe weather conditions expected to arrive late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Falcon jet crews from Air Station Cape Cod, Massachusetts, began flying storm tracks Thursday to broadcast the warnings to mariners offshore.

On land, a flood watch is in effect for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from east of Watch Hill to Merrimack River, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Coastal storm surge flooding of three to five feet above normal tide levels with large and dangerous battering waves are expected along Hanna's path. Rainfall of three to seven inches is likely, forecasters say, with the potential for flash flooding in the mid-Atlantic region and southern New England.

Right behind Hanna, a major hurricane is tracing an erratic path through the Caribbean. Hurricane Ike was located about 425 miles north of the Leeward Islands, or about 1100 miles east of Miami this afternoon.

Ike is moving west at around 16 mph, but I expect it to turn more toward the west-southwest Friday and Saturday, with a turn back toward the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, making Ike a Category 3 hurricane. Ike is likely to maintain a Category 3 or 4 intensity as it moves toward the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Hurricane watches were issued for the southeastern Bahamas earlier this afternoon.

I was right about landfall, and glad I was off on my prediction of strength. By nightfall tonight, North Carolina should be clear. Too late for a concert outdoors Ted?

My concern at this point is a strike from Ike in Florida soon.

And the hits keep coming

Hanna is now catching all of the attention as it prepares to make landfall and foilks along the eastern seaboard prepare for the worst. I’ll brag a little and say that I forecasted Hanna to make landfall in North Carolina over a week ago… a fact that is no longer being disputed by meteorologists nor the computer models.

Hanna will bring a very wet weekend to North Carolina along with the threat of flooding and dangerous surge issues in some places.

The models seem to all be in agreement as to Hanna’s track, but our concern is not just for North Carolina as Hanna’s winds extend far beyond the actual storm and we believe that both South Carolina and North Carolina will suffer, followed by a track that I believe will take Hanna to New York and then Maine.

Experts say that Hanna will probably be a category One, but I am leaning toward a stronger storm so I guess we will see soon… I have been right so far!

Floridians need to pay attention to Ike right now; a dangerous Cat 4 out in the water. I believe we are looking at a hit on south Florida at the time, but will continue to track him ad he approaches. Expect a Cat 5 not easily hindered by islands that stand in his way.

The models are also showing Josephine dissipating out there in the water due to shear, but I am thinking she does not want to be left out of the party and will hold together just for show.

The C4L Tracking Center is buzzing with the sounds of television monitors, Louisiana Emergency management radio, Ham radios and of course, the volunteers that ssist us in maintainng our center.

We will keep you posted.

Has Gustav made you think?

Did you remember that September is National Preparedness Month?

As Gustav continues inland, Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine serve as stark reminders of the need for Americans to be prepared. The Department of Homeland Security’s Ready Campaign encourages citizens to get an emergency supply kit, make an emergency plan, and be informed about what to do if these Tropical Storms gain strength, turn into hurricanes, and head in their direction. As seen with Gustav, hurricanes and tropical storms also produce tornadoes, flooding and power outages that affect citizens for hours or even days after the initial storm has passed. Ready wants to make sure citizens are on alert and listening to what local authorities are advising them to do.

Ready recommends having a three-day supply of water for each individual in your family, including pets, along with non-perishable food, a battery-powered radio, extra batteries and a flashlight. It is also important to consider your family’s unique needs such as medication and any important documents like property insurance. Additionally, pet owners should check which shelters in the area will take animals in case of evacuation. Also, Ready recommends citizens along the Atlantic Coast have a “to-go” kit that includes basic essentials such as food and water as well as blankets and clothing in case they must evacuate on a moment’s notice.

Ready’s Web site, http://www.ready.gov/, is a free resource where individuals can find an emergency supply checklist, download an emergency plan and link to local information. Ready also has resources and tools available on its Web site to help business owners ensure their business plans stay up and running, talk to their employees and protect their assets. For information in Spanish, visit http://www.listo.gov/. Individuals can also call 1-800-BE-READY or 1-888-SE-LISTO for more emergency preparedness information.

February 2008 marked the Ready Campaign’s fifth year at the Department of Homeland Security. Launched in 2003 in partnership with The Advertising Council, Ready is designed to educate and empower Americans to prepare for and respond to emergencies, including natural disasters and potential terrorist attacks. It has proven to be one of the most successful campaigns in Ad Council's more than 65-year history. Since its launch, the campaign has generated more than $756.5 million in donated media support. Individuals interested in more information about family, business and community preparedness can visit http://www.ready.gov/.

Chasing4Life is a member of the national Preparedness Month Coalition.

The Addams Family of Hurricanes

So, I am sitting here watching this M&M's dark chocolate commerical and they are using the Addams Family song...

They're creepy and they're kooky,Mysterious and spooky,They're all together ooky...

Everyone is tired. This Addams Family cluster of tropical storms has got us all a bit frazzled...

Preparations were made to head to the Gulf Coast and the weekend was spent tracking Gustav (Gomez) and connecting our people and others throughout the storm. Yesterday at the Channel 5 Weather Center we tracked damage reports and got Jim back into New Orleans. The city was fortunate as I said in yesterday’s broadcasts, with Gomez skirting the coast long enough and changing strike direction just enough that New Orleans was spared from what could have been a horrific storm. This doesn’t mean that there are not folks in need of assistance as most of our friends are in and around the Houma area which took the greatest hit. Power restoratation will be an issue but the folks from Entergy seem to have a handle on it and I am confident that we will see folks returning home.

Jim will give us an update today on the needs and hopefully we will mobilize recovery/repair efforts here within a day or two. The team is looking at some time down in Lousiana, but just how long and when depends on what happens in the next few days.

Gomez is still making tornadoes as it heads further inland and I expect that Gomez will begin to head toward Missouri/Arkansas today and begin causing a threat for Illinois with thunderstorms here shortly.

Hanna (Morticia) is struggling against shear winds and has weakened a bit today, actually a tropical storm for now, but I believe we will see intensification soon as Gomez moves away from territories she intends on marking soon. I think we will see an impact later this week but only after Morticia becomes a hurricane again. Our main concerns right now are for northern Florida and the Carolinas.

I will be surprised if Morticia does not develop quite an eyewall again and head more northward toward the South Carolina/North Carolina border, possibly striking the Georgia/South Carolina border. Shear could make me wrong and keep her a tropical storm, but I am relatively confident right now in my forecast (however, keep in mind I have only won a total of $3 at the race track in my lifetime!)

With interests in North Carolina, we will keep an eye on Morticia closely.

Now, as I have flashbacks of a few years ago when we had to learn Greek to name hurricanes, here comes two more storms…

Ike (Pugsley) is impressive, growing rapidly and looking like he has an attitude problem. All the models are saying Pugsley is going to head due west making a beeline right below the Florida south coast. I expect that we will see a Category Two and no less by Thursday, possibly a Category Three.

Now, what could very well be Josephine (Wednesday) is presently off the coast of Africa…

What's scary is that Uncle Fester is next.

Somebody really needs to let me name the hurricanes...