Sunday 7PM

Gustav is strengthening now as we expected and will be making landfall sometime late tomorrow morning. We are monitoring emergency management in New Orleans right now and evacuations are now coming to a halt as the dusk to dawn curfew will be taking effect momentarily. We will attempt a new update in a few hours and of course will be here all day tomorrow or on KHASTV.

Stay tuned.

Update Sunday 2PM

(Picture: NASA photo of Gustav this morning)

Well, evacuations are still underway ahead of what could be a storm worse than Katrina. Our guys have pulled back to Alexandria, Louisiana and several of our team are now making preparations to head south for disaster recovery work.

One sound bit from Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard stood out this morning:

"You cannot protect yourself against what Mother Nature is going to throw at us,"

And he is right.

It is with great sadness and heavy hearts that we are hearing from our friends, families and partners throughout Louisiana as they leave their homes. Many of them reside in the southern portions of the state.

At least 1.1 million people have left the State already, over 200,000 of them from New Orleans.

Over the course of the next few days, talk will turn from stormtracking to disaster recovery and we encourage you to get in touch with an ORGANIZED entity that has a PLAN for disaster recovery. If you do not know of such an organization, please feel free to email us at info@chasing4life.org and we will direct you to the disaster recovery network from Louisiana so that you can be as much help as possible.

Update 6PM Saturday

Gustav is beginning to enter the Gulf with winds in excess of 150 MPH, just barely under a Category 5 Hurricane. Evacuations are underway throughout Louisiana and by the reports we have received, things are still relatively smooth-going. I want to give credit where credit is due and the State of Louisiana has certainly proven that they have a plan.

Our folks in New Orleans are staying and will be giving us updates as they can throughout the next few days. We will be praying for their safety.

Things are beginning to change already as winds are picking up and Florida is experiencing tornadic weather already because of Gustav.

We will keep updating you as we can; arrangements are still underway for the team to leave soon, but this will probably not occur until after Gustav makes landfall now.

Three Years Later

Katrina Anniversary number three.

It is eerie to be on the anniversary of Katrina and getting the reports we are getting. Parishes throughout Louisiana are either evacuating or preparing to evacuate. All eyes are on Gustav and talk is of storm surge.

WARNING: the next few days (several days?) will make for a pretty emotional blog here at http://www.chasing4life.org/. We have been in contact with friends, family, connections, team members, law enforcement and others throughout the region about to feel the effects of Gustav.

Hurricane Gustav is expected to dramatically intensify as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico over the next three days, and now will arrive at the central Louisiana coast with strong Category 3 winds after briefly reaching Category 4 strength.

The rapid intensification is linked in part to the "loop current" just northwest of Cuba, a deep pool of warm water that has broken off from the Gulfstream and floated into the central Gulf. Warm surface temperatures across the rest of the Gulf will keep Gustav growing until it makes landfall at about 1 a.m. Tuesday south of Morgan City and Houma. (Martin, our prayers are with you.)

The forecast path is moved slightly west right at landfall, which will place both Morgan City and Houma in Gustav's northeastern quadrant, and subject to a growing threat of storm surge.

I was reading a report about early surge modeling by Louisiana State University indicating a chance of water 15 feet deep in the Houma area.

Some models still push the storm farther west toward Texas, while others move it farther east, but we are seeing a hit as predicted, and we will stay on this through it all.

We have added a great Hurricane Page Link to the website, so go to our home page and look in the left menu for the new Hurricane Season link from Alexandria, Louisiana!

Tonight we will pray for our family down south and tomorrow we will update you again...

EYES ON NEW ORLEANS

A trough moving across the Midwest could slow Gustav down, but he is definitely going to be a problem anyway you look at it. As we attempt to make final decisions regarding a trip south, the question on everyone’s mind is: Where will he make landfall?

My guess is still near New Orleans on Tuesday.

As we were discussing the possible trip south, I took a moment to call on some friends we have and a few television stations in Louisiana. According to reports, the lines for generators were long, but the folks from Home Depot were being friendly!

“It is not Katrina!” said one of my contacts. “There are buses everywhere and anyone that wants a ride will have one! There is no panic…nothing like last time!”

It was good to hear. The State of Louisiana truly has shown that they have learned some lessons and given this a lot of thought.

As we wake tomorrow to what should be a Category One Hurricane, everyone around the country will be eyeing Gustav.
I expect that we will see not only intensification over the next 36 hours, but a very intense GROWTH pattern which should cause ALL residents on all sides of the Gulf to be making last minute preparations NOW.

If the team heads to the Gulf, we will let you know and you can watch for updates on KHAS-TV until we return.

Until tomorrow…Peace.

Gustav's a comin!

Gustav is getting a lot of attention now as the Gulf Coast states begin preparations for what could be a horrific storm should things go as we expect. As of the last time we checked, Gustav had killed over 20 people between in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The models are showing an agreement with previous predictions that we made earlier this week here at Chasing4Life as it looks like Gustav will enter the Gulf and, gliding slowly over warmer water, could grow to a Category 3 Hurricane quickly as it heads toward what looks to be the Louisiana coastline. The next two days will tell us a lot more about just how fast Gustav will be moving, and it will be speed that will determine just how strong Gustav will be when he makes landfall.

In the meantime, North Carolina is taking a pounding from the remnants of Fay with tornadoes reported and heavy rainfall.

Now, there is a tropical disturbance a few hundred miles from Puerto Rico and it is showing signs of getting a little more serious. We expect that this storm will develop into a tropical storm as Gustav begins to eye a landing spot so this weekend and the early part of next week will prove to be interesting to say the least. Most of the modeling shows this storm heading northward with a possibility of developing into a hurricane, so we will keep our east coast family and friends updated over the next few days.

For our family in North Carolina, stay safe and stay tuned to your weather radios.
Until next update…

Just Guessin' For Now...

This morning we were discussing our hurricane predictions, as we tend to do over coffee during this season. With summer storms being so sporadic, we will attempt to forecast the direction and destination of tropical storms just to see how accurate we can be. It is a good exercise in reading and forecasting and keeps the blood flowing during the slower storm season here in the Midwest.

Today, Gustav hit Haiti as a category One, and as expected, this weakened the storm. What we expect is that Gustav will quickly strengthen and begin to follow a track into the Gulf. The storm forecasts seem to think that Gustav will go west and then Northwest into the Gulf over the next few days.

While the forecast is unclear as of yet as to Gustav’s landfall, we were making guesses this morning; guesses and estimates that ranged from the Panhandle of Florida to the Texas Coast. I believe that as long as Gustav enters the center of the Gulf, it will follow a north-northwest track through the warm waters I am seeing here at our Tracking Center; waters that are presently about 87.6 degrees up the middle of the Gulf to Louisiana.

While this is just an estimate at this time, and no real prediction that should cause concern, there are some facts that should be considered. First, the shear winds are low, allowing Gustav to really simmer over the warm waters of the Gulf, “feeding” if you will. Once Gustav passes Cuba, He will begin to “cook” in these warm waters as he heads into the deeper Gulf waters. If you remember Katrina and Rita, these storms followed that warm water to the coast of Louisiana. I can see this “line” of warm water now, and would expect that this would be he “road” to travel.

We saw waters like this with Hurricane Charley who of course, headed right into Florida, but Katrina and Rita were caught up in this current of warm water almost as if it they were being “sucked” northward. We now have a Loop current of this water just south of New Orleans which is leading me to think that preparedness should once again be on the minds of our friends and family members along the Gulf Coast.

A few more days will add accuracy to my guesses, so for now, with less than a 40% chance of anything really worth watching around the home front…we’ll keep an eye on Gustav.

Mountain Rain

"From the mountains, to the prairies...to the oceans..."

Well, we are doing it backwards this time.

I remember the best rains were those I experienced in the Appalachian Mountains; the air was clean and a mist would hang over the trees afterwards while the grass glistened in the setting sun…

Things will not be so pretty this week.

With a day of tornado warnings for Alabama and warnings still in the Panhandle of Florida, Fay has not yet stopped her pounding of the States.

Fay has started to move into the Appalachians which can cause flash flooding so she may soon be causing yet another problem. Mudslides are not out of the question as we saw with Charley, Ivan and Francis for those of you that remember. Rainfall totals could be up to 8 inches in some areas through this evening as Fay goes cross-country.

On the other hand, we now have Tropical Storm Gustav that appeared on the scene today and intensified quickly through the day. We had been watching this storm develop, but were actually surprised at how quick it got its name.

Models are coming together as for the future of Gustav which looks to be headed toward Haiti. At this time, we think that Gustav will probably curl around Florida and head into the Gulf, of course, entering dangerously warm waters around Saturday where he will probably be a decent Hurricane.

Brandi will stay on this in the tracking center and we will keep you posted. As for your local weather here in Nebraska, we are looking toward a frontal boundary that should roll through Tuesday night to give us our best chance of thunderstorms although I would not rule out any tonight. For a more detailed forecast, quit reading this and tune into KHAS!

Talk at ya tomorrow.

Rain, Rain, Go Away!

Well, morning brought Fay into the lives of those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana with flood warnings still throughout Northern Florida!

I expect we will see a few more days of this rain-producer with rains drenching much of the deep south; Alabama, Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. rain fall amounts may still reach 10 to 15 inches in much of this region.

I expect we could see another stall in Fay's movement on Monday, probably more in mississippi and Eastern Louisiana which could cause some more real flooding issues; I will keep you updated on that over the next 24 hours.

Last night we received uncomfirmed reports of more deaths due to flooding, but no numbers are confirmed yet. I imagine we will do a Fay wrap-up sometime toward the end of the week.

Nebraska had a bit of rain last night although this morning most of the activity seemed to be more along a line from hayes to Wichita.

We will begin compiling some of the facts and stats from Fay as we watch the tropics for more development.

The rain threat is pretty much gone for the rest of the day here at home with expected temps around 75 or so, so grab the family and spend some time together. Watch the side roads and gravel by-ways for a few hours as some of last night's activity made some of these a bit slick as I found out early this morning.

TO BE IN BAD WATERS

“Eddy, none of the hurricanes we weathered a few years ago down here compare to this…it’s still raining!”

That was how the day started yesterday as we checked in with the folks in Melbourne, Florida. They described the flooding situation as the worse they had seen in years. At one time the comment was made: “We’d rather have the high winds than this!”

There is an old phrase, "To be in bad waters" that meant you were in a difficult position. The folks in Florida know this all too well now...

And it isn’t over. As of right now, Fay is still causing havoc with tornado warnings in both Florida and Georgia as she heads toward Louisiana; the first storm of its kind to make 4 landfalls in Florida. Fay is now right around Apalachicola and there seems to be no sign of her changing her pattern. This afternoon Fay will go out over the Gulf where I expect she will pick up some speed as well as strength in the warm waters.

While we had our fair share of rains in Nebraska this year, imagine the folks back near the old Chasing4Life headquarters in Cape Canaveral where they have experienced 22.83” of rain so far! National Weather Service has estimated rain in Melbourne at 26.65 so far! The previous record, by the way, was Hurricane King in 1950 who dumped 15” on Cape Canaveral. As of this morning, Lake Okeechobee’s water level is now 1.6 feet higher than last week.

Fay has been a tornado maker too. As of this morning I think the count was 15 tornadoes, but that count could be growing with the present warnings on the screen here at our tracking center (see picture). I expect that we will see more tornadoes at least through Tuesday.

It won’t be over by any means come Tuesday however, as tropical wave 94L is now about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands. This storm seems to be growing and heading toward the Florida coastline; you can bet that Brandi will be in the tracking center countless hours this week watching the development of this.

Our prayers are with our old neighbors and friends down south and we will continue to keep you abreast of the situation as it develops...

Oceans of Fun!

Well, as of supper time, Fay had entered water and was a little stronger. The main threat from Fay still appears to be flooding, which was our concern to begin with. Footage and pictures sent in today showed Melbourne with several feet of water on the streets and with rain bands still curling through the state of Florida, the flooding threat is nowhere near over. Moving slowly, Fay appears to be almost stationary but we should see her begin to move toward the Northwest/West-Northwest and we will see her move across Northern Florida tomorrow.

As the hurricanes keep coming and we keep an eye on Fay and also the next disturbance out in the water, it makes me miss the days of surfing tropical storm waves.

Now, while there are not many Nebraskans that worry or wonder about coastal climate, there is a large number of us that visit the coastal States on vacation and many more of us with relatives down south. We always get excited when a new thing comes out that promotes disaster preparedness and safety and so we are excited today!

NOAA has created one of their coolest sites! Just a few days ago we got to see the new Southeast Marine Weather Internet Portal. This site offers kind-of a “one-stop-shopping experience” for anyone interested in marine weather forecasts, real-time coastal wind and water conditions for the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida and Alabama!

The portal is the result of a two-year $579,546 NOAA-funded project implemented within the Southeast coastal Observing Regional Association through the University of North Carolina in Wilmington. The portal is an experimental online product developed in cooperation with NOAA’s National Weather Service and the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS).

The site is simple to use and very handy whether you are on vacation, watching the hurricanes, planning a trip south or hoping to catch some waves.

NOAA IOOS Program Director Zdenka Willis said that the site is for the purpose of supplying people with “everything they might need to know to make smart decisions”.

You can check out the new site at http://forecast.weather.gov/mwp and start tracking!

More Fay updates tomorrow and maybe a reason to start the chase vehicles later this week?

Fay's still cookin'

Well, Fay came on land this morning and surprised us during the day by intensifying over land! All of the computer models now are looking like they are in agreement that Fay will emerge out into the Atlantic again tomorrow and continue to intensify. It looks like Fay will be around at least through the week and bears watching…This all brings back a lot of memories looking back over the years spent in Cape Canaveral, especially in 2004 and 2005.

Another bit of weather related news is the 182,000 public alert radios being distributed to schools around the country by The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with funding from The Department of Homeland Security. Schools can take a look at this program by getting online and visiting http://public-alert-radio.nws.noaa.gov/

As for our local weather? Watch John tonight!

Hurricane School

From the calls and emails we have received, it turns out that quite a few of you are tracking Fay! To answer some questions, we are listing the Saffir-Simpson Scale descriptions below.

Tropical Storm- Winds 39-73 mph

Category 1 Hurricane — winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.

Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.

Category 3 Hurricane — winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

Category 4 Hurricane — winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.

Fay

Okay, after a long weekend of travel, the chase team is all back in Nebraska. While we were gone, Fay decided to make her approach and hit the Keys today with more strength than many expected. The West coast of Florida will see Fay in all her glory tomorrow as she makes landfall probably between Marco Island and Fort Meyers. Because of Fay’s direction of travel, even the slightest change or wobble could drastically change where she makes landfall so we are hoping that the folks down along the Gulf are heeding the warnings and are prepared.
Storm surge is going to be a big issue here as always as a Category One can result in storm surges of 4-8 feet.

As for Fay’s long-term plans, nobody is sure, but it appears that Fay will travel across the State of Florida emerging off the East Coast restrengthening again in the warm water and then will return to the coastline somewhere near the Georgia/North Carolina Coast!

We’ve seen hurricanes like this before, as you may remember, just a few years ago; hurricanes that meandered back and forth like a vacationer with too much time on their hands.

It’s possible that Fay takes a turn and stays to the West which could spell trouble for Louisiana, but the only the next few hours will really determine what her direction will be.

Should Fay stall over Central Florida, she could very well be pushed back to make a second landfall on the peninsula again. Flooding will be a major factor should this happen as she will travel “over the same roads” twice.

We’ll keep you updated.

National Preparedness Month is coming...

NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS MONTH 2008

As a member of the National Preparedness Month Coalition, Chasing4Life wants you to start thinking now about what you can do to impact your community with a disaster preparedness message during September, National Preparedness Month.

National Preparedness Month is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Ready Campaign. NPM is held each September and is designed to encourage Americans to take simple steps to prepare for emergencies in their homes, businesses and communities.

This is our fifth year as members of the coalition and you will notice an increased amount of preparedness materials available on our website during National Preparedness Month with a focus on Emergency supply Kits, Family Emergency Plans and disaster resilience education.

Last year we were partnered with over 1800 organizations nationwide as a part of this coalition, highlighting the importance of disaster preparedness.

We want to encourage you to think about what YOU can do next month to be a part of this awesome effort. Ask your church to host a disaster preparedness event, talk to your chamber about a business continuity workshop or approach your boss about a disaster planning in-service. There are tons of things you can do during the month of September (and all year for that matter) to promote disaster preparedness education! Feel free to contact us to schedule something or for more ideas.

Most importantly, take some time with your own family to discuss what you would do if disaster struck your area, neighborhood or home.

Keep watching the blog and our site, we’ll be posting lots more before September is over…
Wow, September is right around the corner…