Ike Update

Ike re-intensified as expected and is now a Cat 4. The shear that was battling Ike has now diminished and allowed Ike to regain strength and get down to business… the business of heading toward the Gulf and now possibly toward New Orleans!

All the models are in agreement on ike hitting Cuba Sunday night but after that they start to disagree as always. From what I see at this time, a sweeping curve toward Grand Isle is quite possible. Steering currents are weaker right now in the Gulf which could leave Ike off the Florida coast in a stall that would certainly cause problems for Florida’s west coast and will also make prediction of landfall difficult.

Any way you look at it, with the waters warmer and shear at a low, Ike will gain strength after visiting the islands and will definitely be a threat to the Gulf Coast states within 2 days.

Hanna Landfall

Tropical Storm Hanna is making landfall now as we watch her in the C4L Tracking Center.

A tropical storm, almost a hurricane, Hanna is dumping rain with winds of over 70 MPH.
As I told one of our Chasing4Life supporters in Clayton, North Carolina yesterday…prepare for the storms, the water, power outages and tornadoes.

The center of Hanna should be moving across eastern North Carolina early this morning and across the mid-Atlantic coast later Saturday and Saturday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including all of Chesapeake Bay, Washington, DC, New York Harbor and Long Island sound. This means that Hanna is expected to sweep through the warning area within the next 24 hours.

The District of Columbia activated its emergency operations center at noon today in preparation for Hanna. The Department of Public Works is distributing sandbags to residents who experience flooding during heavy rains.

DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Director Darrell Darnell is urging citizens to clear gutters, drains and downspouts and remove or secure any loose objects such as lawn furniture or barbecue grills from their yards, as they may become projectiles during high winds.
Coast Guard units throughout New England are pre-staging their crews and equipment and warning mariners in anticipation of severe weather conditions expected to arrive late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Falcon jet crews from Air Station Cape Cod, Massachusetts, began flying storm tracks Thursday to broadcast the warnings to mariners offshore.

On land, a flood watch is in effect for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from east of Watch Hill to Merrimack River, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Coastal storm surge flooding of three to five feet above normal tide levels with large and dangerous battering waves are expected along Hanna's path. Rainfall of three to seven inches is likely, forecasters say, with the potential for flash flooding in the mid-Atlantic region and southern New England.

Right behind Hanna, a major hurricane is tracing an erratic path through the Caribbean. Hurricane Ike was located about 425 miles north of the Leeward Islands, or about 1100 miles east of Miami this afternoon.

Ike is moving west at around 16 mph, but I expect it to turn more toward the west-southwest Friday and Saturday, with a turn back toward the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, making Ike a Category 3 hurricane. Ike is likely to maintain a Category 3 or 4 intensity as it moves toward the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Hurricane watches were issued for the southeastern Bahamas earlier this afternoon.

I was right about landfall, and glad I was off on my prediction of strength. By nightfall tonight, North Carolina should be clear. Too late for a concert outdoors Ted?

My concern at this point is a strike from Ike in Florida soon.

And the hits keep coming

Hanna is now catching all of the attention as it prepares to make landfall and foilks along the eastern seaboard prepare for the worst. I’ll brag a little and say that I forecasted Hanna to make landfall in North Carolina over a week ago… a fact that is no longer being disputed by meteorologists nor the computer models.

Hanna will bring a very wet weekend to North Carolina along with the threat of flooding and dangerous surge issues in some places.

The models seem to all be in agreement as to Hanna’s track, but our concern is not just for North Carolina as Hanna’s winds extend far beyond the actual storm and we believe that both South Carolina and North Carolina will suffer, followed by a track that I believe will take Hanna to New York and then Maine.

Experts say that Hanna will probably be a category One, but I am leaning toward a stronger storm so I guess we will see soon… I have been right so far!

Floridians need to pay attention to Ike right now; a dangerous Cat 4 out in the water. I believe we are looking at a hit on south Florida at the time, but will continue to track him ad he approaches. Expect a Cat 5 not easily hindered by islands that stand in his way.

The models are also showing Josephine dissipating out there in the water due to shear, but I am thinking she does not want to be left out of the party and will hold together just for show.

The C4L Tracking Center is buzzing with the sounds of television monitors, Louisiana Emergency management radio, Ham radios and of course, the volunteers that ssist us in maintainng our center.

We will keep you posted.

Has Gustav made you think?

Did you remember that September is National Preparedness Month?

As Gustav continues inland, Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine serve as stark reminders of the need for Americans to be prepared. The Department of Homeland Security’s Ready Campaign encourages citizens to get an emergency supply kit, make an emergency plan, and be informed about what to do if these Tropical Storms gain strength, turn into hurricanes, and head in their direction. As seen with Gustav, hurricanes and tropical storms also produce tornadoes, flooding and power outages that affect citizens for hours or even days after the initial storm has passed. Ready wants to make sure citizens are on alert and listening to what local authorities are advising them to do.

Ready recommends having a three-day supply of water for each individual in your family, including pets, along with non-perishable food, a battery-powered radio, extra batteries and a flashlight. It is also important to consider your family’s unique needs such as medication and any important documents like property insurance. Additionally, pet owners should check which shelters in the area will take animals in case of evacuation. Also, Ready recommends citizens along the Atlantic Coast have a “to-go” kit that includes basic essentials such as food and water as well as blankets and clothing in case they must evacuate on a moment’s notice.

Ready’s Web site, http://www.ready.gov/, is a free resource where individuals can find an emergency supply checklist, download an emergency plan and link to local information. Ready also has resources and tools available on its Web site to help business owners ensure their business plans stay up and running, talk to their employees and protect their assets. For information in Spanish, visit http://www.listo.gov/. Individuals can also call 1-800-BE-READY or 1-888-SE-LISTO for more emergency preparedness information.

February 2008 marked the Ready Campaign’s fifth year at the Department of Homeland Security. Launched in 2003 in partnership with The Advertising Council, Ready is designed to educate and empower Americans to prepare for and respond to emergencies, including natural disasters and potential terrorist attacks. It has proven to be one of the most successful campaigns in Ad Council's more than 65-year history. Since its launch, the campaign has generated more than $756.5 million in donated media support. Individuals interested in more information about family, business and community preparedness can visit http://www.ready.gov/.

Chasing4Life is a member of the national Preparedness Month Coalition.

The Addams Family of Hurricanes

So, I am sitting here watching this M&M's dark chocolate commerical and they are using the Addams Family song...

They're creepy and they're kooky,Mysterious and spooky,They're all together ooky...

Everyone is tired. This Addams Family cluster of tropical storms has got us all a bit frazzled...

Preparations were made to head to the Gulf Coast and the weekend was spent tracking Gustav (Gomez) and connecting our people and others throughout the storm. Yesterday at the Channel 5 Weather Center we tracked damage reports and got Jim back into New Orleans. The city was fortunate as I said in yesterday’s broadcasts, with Gomez skirting the coast long enough and changing strike direction just enough that New Orleans was spared from what could have been a horrific storm. This doesn’t mean that there are not folks in need of assistance as most of our friends are in and around the Houma area which took the greatest hit. Power restoratation will be an issue but the folks from Entergy seem to have a handle on it and I am confident that we will see folks returning home.

Jim will give us an update today on the needs and hopefully we will mobilize recovery/repair efforts here within a day or two. The team is looking at some time down in Lousiana, but just how long and when depends on what happens in the next few days.

Gomez is still making tornadoes as it heads further inland and I expect that Gomez will begin to head toward Missouri/Arkansas today and begin causing a threat for Illinois with thunderstorms here shortly.

Hanna (Morticia) is struggling against shear winds and has weakened a bit today, actually a tropical storm for now, but I believe we will see intensification soon as Gomez moves away from territories she intends on marking soon. I think we will see an impact later this week but only after Morticia becomes a hurricane again. Our main concerns right now are for northern Florida and the Carolinas.

I will be surprised if Morticia does not develop quite an eyewall again and head more northward toward the South Carolina/North Carolina border, possibly striking the Georgia/South Carolina border. Shear could make me wrong and keep her a tropical storm, but I am relatively confident right now in my forecast (however, keep in mind I have only won a total of $3 at the race track in my lifetime!)

With interests in North Carolina, we will keep an eye on Morticia closely.

Now, as I have flashbacks of a few years ago when we had to learn Greek to name hurricanes, here comes two more storms…

Ike (Pugsley) is impressive, growing rapidly and looking like he has an attitude problem. All the models are saying Pugsley is going to head due west making a beeline right below the Florida south coast. I expect that we will see a Category Two and no less by Thursday, possibly a Category Three.

Now, what could very well be Josephine (Wednesday) is presently off the coast of Africa…

What's scary is that Uncle Fester is next.

Somebody really needs to let me name the hurricanes...

Sunday 7PM

Gustav is strengthening now as we expected and will be making landfall sometime late tomorrow morning. We are monitoring emergency management in New Orleans right now and evacuations are now coming to a halt as the dusk to dawn curfew will be taking effect momentarily. We will attempt a new update in a few hours and of course will be here all day tomorrow or on KHASTV.

Stay tuned.

Update Sunday 2PM

(Picture: NASA photo of Gustav this morning)

Well, evacuations are still underway ahead of what could be a storm worse than Katrina. Our guys have pulled back to Alexandria, Louisiana and several of our team are now making preparations to head south for disaster recovery work.

One sound bit from Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard stood out this morning:

"You cannot protect yourself against what Mother Nature is going to throw at us,"

And he is right.

It is with great sadness and heavy hearts that we are hearing from our friends, families and partners throughout Louisiana as they leave their homes. Many of them reside in the southern portions of the state.

At least 1.1 million people have left the State already, over 200,000 of them from New Orleans.

Over the course of the next few days, talk will turn from stormtracking to disaster recovery and we encourage you to get in touch with an ORGANIZED entity that has a PLAN for disaster recovery. If you do not know of such an organization, please feel free to email us at info@chasing4life.org and we will direct you to the disaster recovery network from Louisiana so that you can be as much help as possible.

Update 6PM Saturday

Gustav is beginning to enter the Gulf with winds in excess of 150 MPH, just barely under a Category 5 Hurricane. Evacuations are underway throughout Louisiana and by the reports we have received, things are still relatively smooth-going. I want to give credit where credit is due and the State of Louisiana has certainly proven that they have a plan.

Our folks in New Orleans are staying and will be giving us updates as they can throughout the next few days. We will be praying for their safety.

Things are beginning to change already as winds are picking up and Florida is experiencing tornadic weather already because of Gustav.

We will keep updating you as we can; arrangements are still underway for the team to leave soon, but this will probably not occur until after Gustav makes landfall now.

Three Years Later

Katrina Anniversary number three.

It is eerie to be on the anniversary of Katrina and getting the reports we are getting. Parishes throughout Louisiana are either evacuating or preparing to evacuate. All eyes are on Gustav and talk is of storm surge.

WARNING: the next few days (several days?) will make for a pretty emotional blog here at http://www.chasing4life.org/. We have been in contact with friends, family, connections, team members, law enforcement and others throughout the region about to feel the effects of Gustav.

Hurricane Gustav is expected to dramatically intensify as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico over the next three days, and now will arrive at the central Louisiana coast with strong Category 3 winds after briefly reaching Category 4 strength.

The rapid intensification is linked in part to the "loop current" just northwest of Cuba, a deep pool of warm water that has broken off from the Gulfstream and floated into the central Gulf. Warm surface temperatures across the rest of the Gulf will keep Gustav growing until it makes landfall at about 1 a.m. Tuesday south of Morgan City and Houma. (Martin, our prayers are with you.)

The forecast path is moved slightly west right at landfall, which will place both Morgan City and Houma in Gustav's northeastern quadrant, and subject to a growing threat of storm surge.

I was reading a report about early surge modeling by Louisiana State University indicating a chance of water 15 feet deep in the Houma area.

Some models still push the storm farther west toward Texas, while others move it farther east, but we are seeing a hit as predicted, and we will stay on this through it all.

We have added a great Hurricane Page Link to the website, so go to our home page and look in the left menu for the new Hurricane Season link from Alexandria, Louisiana!

Tonight we will pray for our family down south and tomorrow we will update you again...

EYES ON NEW ORLEANS

A trough moving across the Midwest could slow Gustav down, but he is definitely going to be a problem anyway you look at it. As we attempt to make final decisions regarding a trip south, the question on everyone’s mind is: Where will he make landfall?

My guess is still near New Orleans on Tuesday.

As we were discussing the possible trip south, I took a moment to call on some friends we have and a few television stations in Louisiana. According to reports, the lines for generators were long, but the folks from Home Depot were being friendly!

“It is not Katrina!” said one of my contacts. “There are buses everywhere and anyone that wants a ride will have one! There is no panic…nothing like last time!”

It was good to hear. The State of Louisiana truly has shown that they have learned some lessons and given this a lot of thought.

As we wake tomorrow to what should be a Category One Hurricane, everyone around the country will be eyeing Gustav.
I expect that we will see not only intensification over the next 36 hours, but a very intense GROWTH pattern which should cause ALL residents on all sides of the Gulf to be making last minute preparations NOW.

If the team heads to the Gulf, we will let you know and you can watch for updates on KHAS-TV until we return.

Until tomorrow…Peace.

Gustav's a comin!

Gustav is getting a lot of attention now as the Gulf Coast states begin preparations for what could be a horrific storm should things go as we expect. As of the last time we checked, Gustav had killed over 20 people between in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The models are showing an agreement with previous predictions that we made earlier this week here at Chasing4Life as it looks like Gustav will enter the Gulf and, gliding slowly over warmer water, could grow to a Category 3 Hurricane quickly as it heads toward what looks to be the Louisiana coastline. The next two days will tell us a lot more about just how fast Gustav will be moving, and it will be speed that will determine just how strong Gustav will be when he makes landfall.

In the meantime, North Carolina is taking a pounding from the remnants of Fay with tornadoes reported and heavy rainfall.

Now, there is a tropical disturbance a few hundred miles from Puerto Rico and it is showing signs of getting a little more serious. We expect that this storm will develop into a tropical storm as Gustav begins to eye a landing spot so this weekend and the early part of next week will prove to be interesting to say the least. Most of the modeling shows this storm heading northward with a possibility of developing into a hurricane, so we will keep our east coast family and friends updated over the next few days.

For our family in North Carolina, stay safe and stay tuned to your weather radios.
Until next update…

Just Guessin' For Now...

This morning we were discussing our hurricane predictions, as we tend to do over coffee during this season. With summer storms being so sporadic, we will attempt to forecast the direction and destination of tropical storms just to see how accurate we can be. It is a good exercise in reading and forecasting and keeps the blood flowing during the slower storm season here in the Midwest.

Today, Gustav hit Haiti as a category One, and as expected, this weakened the storm. What we expect is that Gustav will quickly strengthen and begin to follow a track into the Gulf. The storm forecasts seem to think that Gustav will go west and then Northwest into the Gulf over the next few days.

While the forecast is unclear as of yet as to Gustav’s landfall, we were making guesses this morning; guesses and estimates that ranged from the Panhandle of Florida to the Texas Coast. I believe that as long as Gustav enters the center of the Gulf, it will follow a north-northwest track through the warm waters I am seeing here at our Tracking Center; waters that are presently about 87.6 degrees up the middle of the Gulf to Louisiana.

While this is just an estimate at this time, and no real prediction that should cause concern, there are some facts that should be considered. First, the shear winds are low, allowing Gustav to really simmer over the warm waters of the Gulf, “feeding” if you will. Once Gustav passes Cuba, He will begin to “cook” in these warm waters as he heads into the deeper Gulf waters. If you remember Katrina and Rita, these storms followed that warm water to the coast of Louisiana. I can see this “line” of warm water now, and would expect that this would be he “road” to travel.

We saw waters like this with Hurricane Charley who of course, headed right into Florida, but Katrina and Rita were caught up in this current of warm water almost as if it they were being “sucked” northward. We now have a Loop current of this water just south of New Orleans which is leading me to think that preparedness should once again be on the minds of our friends and family members along the Gulf Coast.

A few more days will add accuracy to my guesses, so for now, with less than a 40% chance of anything really worth watching around the home front…we’ll keep an eye on Gustav.