Thursday, October 2, 2008

Recuperating and Preparing




It has been an interesting week. Recuperating from a serious surgery gave me a lot of time to think; translation: I WAS SO BORED.




On top of being only able to sit around, the weather offered nothing to get excited about.

My boredom was eliminated Wednesday as the team ventured out with their recuperating (and crabby) leader and headed out to Cozad, Nebraska where we hooked up with sister station KNOP before presenting on stormchasing and home disaster kits to the folks of Cozad at an awesome event hosted by the Cozad Church of Christ. The church has chosen to host a series of disaster resilience training events and workshops throughout 2009, and we are looking forward to working with these folks who have great vision and energy.

Thursday morning brought the team to Ravenna where we presented to the folks at the Ravenna Senior Citizen’s Center. While the presentation went well, we had more fun discussing old weather history from the area with the folks at the center and discussing the possibilities the winter holds for us all.

Next Thursday we will be back at the center to show our new Chasing4Life documentary film “The Oconto Project”, the first public showing of the documentary since its creation earlier this summer.

At both events we talked to great lengths about the trends of this year’s severe weather and the consensus was that we are going to watch the month of October closely. Most people still relate tornado season with the spring, yet historically, October has almost always proven to be an active month for severe weather, and we have 4 weeks ahead of changing weather.

Now, onto hurricanes…

Usually October is also the peak of hurricane season, the busiest being the season we would like to forget: 2005 when we had 7 named storms, three hurricanes and one large hurricane…WILMA the strongest hurricane on record.

A lot of folks see the plummeting temps here as a reason for less severe weather, but actually, the drastic changes in temps are what can encourage such weather, and the hurricanes in October could be no different with water temps declining a little, but warm waters still prevalent enough, especially throughout the Caribbean to sustain or grow a major hurricane or two before we enter November.

Here’s today’s weather tidbit:

There is an oscillation in the atmosphere called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the equator and can boost hurricane activity when it heads into the Atlantic. The MJO has a period of about 30 to 60 days and is currently in its active phase over the Atlantic. According to the latest models, the MJO should stay active at least through the middle of the month.



What does this mean?



Well, with a month of activity in the gulf region, a lot could change for us here as well…with the team heading to Iowa and Dodge City, Kansas next, a few hurricanes and a few tornadoes? It could be a fun month.