9 AM Update

Good morning. We slept a little early this morning but we are back now. radio frequencies are hard to listen to this morning as Emergency Management and Responders are on the streets and beginning door to door searches in Galveston and Houston just begins to assess damage.., That damage includes windows out, homes destroyed and widespread flooding. Several fires are still burning without any attendance yet, so the day will be a long one.

Death tolls are not an issue right now as daylight has only now allowed action on the part of search and rescue so we will be monitoring that as well this morning as we report to you. Millions are without power and we cannot stress enough how important it is to try to keep your phone calls to a minimum despite the urge and desire to try to reach loved ones. Clogged lines deter those in real need from making calls that they need to make right now.

We will have an update for you agai in an hour as we gather information, but for now we know that there is millions without power and it was a scary night as Ike made landfall during our last blog post.

We know that Galveston experienced winds in excess of 110 MPH as the eyewalls struck the island and according to reports, we had over 140,000 folks in the evacuation areas that did not evacuate. FEMA is on top of things with several thousand officials at the ready and a plan to begin shipping in packaged meals, generators and water.

Ike is still a Cat 1 and storms will continue throughout the day.

Another update soon.

Ike 1AM Update

Ike is only a few miles from landfall now. It is still hovering on the edge of Cat 2/Cat3. Current reports indicate a 12ft. storm surge in Galveston. Authorities have received several calls from residents needing rescued from the rising water in their homes. Unfortunately, they were warned to evacuate, chose not to, and now rescue is not an option. In addition, Centerpoint Energy is now reporting 750,000 power outages and estimate it could be 2-3 weeks before all power is restored. We knew it would be bad, morning will tell the full story. We are going to nap a little, but will continue to update throughout the night. Stay safe.

Ike Report

Just a quick update. We just heard the first floor of UT Medical Hospital in downtown Galveston is flooded with 10ft. of water. We will have more information in our next hourly update.

Ike Midnight Update

Ike is only about 35 miles from Galveston now. It is still a Cat 2 and the NWS is saying to expect 50ft. waves and peak wind gusts of 115mph. We are starting to hear numerous reports of trees and power poles down. Everyone needs to beware of Ike's large, slow moving eye. Avoid the temptation to venture out as the eye passes over. While the winds will be somewhat calmer for a few hours, the storm surge will still be building. The Coast Guard is estimating as many as 37,000 people may need rescued after Ike passes. Stay safe, more updates to come.

Ike 11PM Update

Not too much change. Ike has slowed down slightly, but the eye will make landfall in the next couple of hours. It has shown some signs of strengthening still with an increase in upper level winds. Centerpoint Energy is now reporting 425,000 power outages, and fire crews are reporting several large fires around Galveston that they are still unable to get to. As I said before, we are here for the duration and will continue to update Ike's intensity and any damage or other pertinent information we recieve here at the tracking center.

10 PM Ike Update

(Left: Eddy and John at the KHAS Weather Center during the 6'0'clock news)

Well, we are only a couple of hours away from Ike's landfall and the hurricane is now just 1 MPH shy of being a Cat 3 hurricane before it makes landfall. The lower parishes in Louisiana are taking quite a hit from wind and water but Galveston is still taking the brunt of Ike's fury with water continually rising and wind gusts now in excess of 130 MPH out in the water...soon to be on Galveston's shore. The latest report shows Ike gaining strength and centering it's eye on Galveston Bay and then directly on to Houston.

On a lighter note, geraldo is standing out on the sea wall in Galveston doing his "thing"; in other words, once again being the perfect example of irresponsible as soon he will need rescuing and will then endanger the lives of responders who I hope are too smart to go get him.

The Weather Channel has done an awesome job today on the other hand and I am extremely impressed with Texas station KHOU-TV.

KHAS has dedicated more time than usual to the weather, and you will be able to catch our web broadcast here shortly by visiting http://www.khastv.com/. Eddy has been at the station all evening and we will have a KHAS crew here at the C4L Tracking Center in the morning to further cover this major weather event.

Ike 9PM Update

Ike is 600 miles wide. Hurricane warnings are in effect for more than 400 miles of Texas and Louisiana coast. Water in Galveston is rising at a rate of more than an inch every two minutes. A tornado watch is in effect for the Greater Houston and southeast Texas areas until 10AM. This is only the beginning. The Coast Guard has rescued 60 people and at least 12 high water rescues have been made on Galveston Island. Due to night fall and increasingly severe weather, no more rescues will be attempted tonight, however, authorities ask that you still report any emergency situations to 911. Cell phone carriers are recommending customers to text rather than make voice calls to avoid overloading area cell towers. Authorities are asking all residents staying in Galveston to write their SSN on their forearm in case of the worst. Depending on your location, curfew goes until at least 7AM and as late as 10AM for some areas. The exception is Galveston County where the curfew is in effect from 5PM until dawn Sunday. Fire crews are reporting a large fire in west Galveston jumping from house to house. They have been unable to reach it and expect it will burn through the night. Centerpoint Energy is reporting 200,000 power outages. The Texas Governor believes Ike could be a $100Billion storm. Finally, if you are in the effected area, the American Red Cross provides a service to allow you to reassure and find your loved ones. You can find more information at http://www.safeandwell.org. Stay safe.

Ike 8PM Update

Ike is still out there. I know... I'm ready for bed too. It looks to be a long night here in the tracking center, but we are here for the duration. FEMA has confirmed just over 600,000 people have evacuated, but estimates as least 90,000 ignored the warnings and stayed. They also estimate at least 100,000 homes will be flooded. Galveston's Ball High School has been set up as a "last resort" shelter for those who stayed, however, no rescues will be made after 9PM. All power is out on Galveston Island now. The latest update, Ike is 70 miles from Galveston, still a Cat 2 with 110mph winds, and moving toward Galveston at 14mph. We are past the time for evacuations. We are past the time for rescues. The news tomorrow morning will be horrific. The case for complacency will be made. I imagine our next update will include landfall. Stay safe.

Ike 7PM Update and Surge Map

Storm Surge Map; area will flood in a:

Pink: Category 1 storm

Yellow: Category 2 storm

Green: Category 3 storm

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We have seen some strengthening and it still looks like Ike will be Cat 3. The outer eyewall is expected to make landfall by 8PM, the inner eyewall by 10PM, and the center by 1AM. Currently, Ike is a Cat 2 with winds of 110mph about 98 miles from Galveston. Storm surge is expected to continue rising through 3AM with a total of at least 20ft. In addition, at least 15in of rain is expected as well. Due to the size of the storm and the specific wind directions, surge water in Galveston may not begin to recede until late Saturday. Reports from the NWS and local authorities are ominous; residents riding out the storm in single story dwellings "face certain death". High winds have halted all off-shore Coast Guard rescue operations and we have heard unconfirmed reports from KHOU-TV, in the Galveston area, of people trapped on their roofs. Due to the weather conditions, local authorities have been unable to even check out these reports. Last we heard, most of Galveston still has power and cell phone service, but authorities expect as many as 5Million power outages. As Ike comes in we will continue to see an increased tornado threat. It is estimated that up to 40 percent of Galveston residents are riding out Ike. Our prayers are with them.

Ike 6PM Update

We still expect Ike may make it to Cat 3 before landfall early Saturday morning. We are watching the Galveston area especially close. We have been busy in the tracking center, monitoring local media outlets and public service radios from the Galveston area. The major concern right now is still flooding due to storm surge. Area police estimate as many as 30 percent of the homes along the coast may still be occupied. We have been listening to boat and helicopter rescues of people who woke up this morning to high water and others who thought they could ride out Ike. The message from Emergency Management; Get out! The Galveston area is already seeing sustained winds of 50mph and gusts of 70+mph. Flooding has been reported up to a half mile inland already. There are an estimated 10,000 without power on Galveston Island alone. Depending on the location, curfew goes into effect between 7pm and midnight for all areas. Finally, we have just heard the first damage estimates of $7Billion. This is a serious storm folks. We will try to get some storm surge maps uploaded. Our next update will be by 8PM. Stay safe.

Tracking Center Working Hard already

The C4L Tracking Center is busy already with Ike reaking havoc throughout the Gulf Coast states and we plan on staying with this storm throughout the night.

Time is running out for Texas as Ike is making its way closer. Although Ike is still a Category 2, its size and strength is still a major issue right now and we still expect Ike to gain some strength before making landfall in the middle of the night. Storm surge from Ike will probably be larger than that oif Katrina which poses a serious problem for those along the Texas coastline not to mention Galveston which is sure to take a horrific hit. Already water is pounding the Galveston coastline and SeaWall Blvd. is inundated.

We will begin to set updates here hourly later this afternoon.

Friday night looking to be brutal

Well, Jim Cantore is in Galveston and changed from his now-familiar black suit to the tight black tee...a bad sign for any city. As I watched him interview the Mayor of Galveston this evening, I chuckled as she ended the conversation by saying she was happy to see him in her town! Obviously she doesn't know how bad it really is when Jim shows up in a t-shirt.

Seriously, preparations are being made to make sure the C4L Tracking Center is ready for tomorrow night.

It has been a long day for those in Texas and things are not much better in Louisiana either. With some dry air off the west side of the Gulf, Ike has stayed a Cat 2 for now but by morning we should see a Cat 3 on its way to being a strong Cat 3 before it makes landfall near Galveston. Already coastal waves are near 9 feet and evacuations seem to be going smoothly according to the Mayor of the sea-bound city; an estimated 75% of the city having evacuated but is it enough?

I doubt it.

Galveston has a population of about 57,000. This means that 14,000 people could be staring out into the darkness tomorrow night as the ocean overcomes their city.

Once Ike nears Galveston, we will know for sure wether or not our predictions were correct; that Ike will strike just south and west of Galveston allowing that dangerous front quarter to raise sea level well beyond not only the sea wall but above the highest point on the island which is only 22 feet above sea level.

We have a lot to contend with here when it comes to surge: first, the winds inside of Ike mixed with the barometric pressure will create a strong surge; second, the storm should arrive just as high tide comes in the middle of Friday night raising sea levels even more.

With over 5 million people just the other side of galveston, evacuations, while running well may not be running well enough as Army Corps of Engineers models show a complete flooding of Galveston and much of the coastal inland.

Once again we are seeing folks simply taping windows and planning on staying, but the City of Galveston is taking a strong stance insisting that there will be no services offered or available for anyone choosing to stay.

Since I know firsthand what it is like to live on an island surrounded by coastal waterway and ocean, I also know how vulnerable you suddenly become with a storm bearing down on you, so I cannot believe folks are staying in Galveston. Should Ike cop an attitude and turn into a Cat 4 before landfall, we could be looking at a storm the likes of which we have only seen on "It Could Happen Tomorrow"!

Even as a Cat 3, this storm is looking like it will be the twin of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane (see earlier blogs) that killed between 6000 and 12000 people.

Our prayers arewith those that are in harm's way for sure.

As they say at the news desk, in other news...

Watch the gas pump prices now as prices have already jumped as much as 30% down south with 96% of the crude business shut down and over 70% of natural gas production has been shut down in the region.

Louisiana is taking a beating again from Ike with surge already effecting the lower parishes and we got a phone call from the Bootheel of Missouri about two hours ago about a series of reported tornadoes near Cabool and Springfield.

Speaking of tornadoes, we will be busy in the C4L Tracking Center starting tomorrow as we staff the center in full to track Ike and the tornadoes that are sure to follow him ashore late tomorrow night. Hopefully we can get the Tracking Center up on KHAS, but if not, stay here checking in and we will continue to post updates and we will attempt to post photos of the tracking center and its staff throughout the night.

If you are in the lower parishes of Louisiana, the coastal areas of Mississippi or near Galveston, please contact us at info@chasing4life.org and make sure you leave us your name, contact numbers and location and we will assign a tracker from the Center to stay in touch with you throughout the next 48 hours or so.

Special thanks to Jeff Masters for the surge model info he provided us yesterday.

REMEMBER

I will be posting several times over the next few days about hurricane Ike, but for this morning, we will focus on something else. Storms like the one Texas is about to experience create heroes and for weeks to come we will hear stories of neighbors helping neighbors, stories of the Coast Guard; stories of Responders; stories of courage...of sacrifice...of determination and of love.

Today we will remember the heroes of September 11, 2001, for today is the anniversary of the day many heroes stepped into eternity answering the call of duty

Today is truly a day of remembrance and reflection for my family. I remember it all as clearly as if it were only yesterday… I was a little over 80 miles from my home at a small diner when the cook came out of the kitchen, his face ashen; his eyes full of tears. Speechless, he motioned to the few customers in the diner to follow him into the kitchen where a small television sat above the grill. We watched in horror as the second plane struck

My home was at the north end of Patrick Air Force Base, and it was several agonizing hours before I could reach my family, and several more before I could make it through the roadblocks and barricades that were immediately set up throughout our region.

For many, the attacks were a thing of television news, but for my family it was a reality that lasted forever as we were surrounded by military for a year, driving through checkpoints to simply go to the store; everyday reminded that our country had been deemed vulnerable. Now, years later, we still remember. We are a firefighter family, and I am the son of a career firefighter. The loss of that day hit close to home, and we felt it our very core.

I wonder today if we really remember. Sure, we have a moment of silence and President Bush will make speeches… the TV will run the saga in drama form and the networks will air every movie made about that day, but do we REALLY remember?

Politics aside, we received a call that day- every one of us. It was a call to be alert, to be prepared, and to support those that live their lives within the shadow of another day like that one. Will you stop today to thank a cop or a firefighter for what they do? Will you take a moment out of your lunch hour to stop by the local fire hall just to say “Thanks for what you do”?

Will you stop sometime tonight between your favorite shows to discuss with your family a communication plan for disasters? Will you stop for a moment today and simply hug your wife, your husband or your kids just because they are there?

There is much to remember today and much to pray about. Hurricane Ike is about to attack our coastline, and I will guarantee you that there are men and women of the same caliber as those that were lost on 9-11 that are waiting for Ike to strike so that they can do what they do.

Eternal God, amidst all the turmoil and changes of our world, we know that you are constant, our firm foundation in the midst of every storm and upheaval. Be with those that still grieve the loss of loved ones lost on that dark day, bless with Your mighty hand those that still stand in defense of our lives, and protect those about to face yet another threat as they answer the call of duty. Bring to our minds the sacrifices of these men and women and give us an extra measure of understanding and appreciation. May our leaders walk in your wisdom this week as we walk in generosity that is sure to be needed. Help us, Lord, to remember what it means to be Americans, help us to remember today what it sometimes takes to be an American, and remind us to pray for those that in uniforms at the ready because they never forget these things. Help us to remember to cherish our country, our freedom and our families as we remember those about to courageously face yet more adversity.

Ike to be a Cat 3 or 4

Hurricane Ike is definitely intensifying, and sometime tomorrow I will post predictions and some links so that you can all take a look at what could be historical storm surge in Texas sometime early Saturday morning as Ike makes landfall a at least a Cat 3 if not a 4!

I have been watching The Weather Channel most of the day and have seen several commercials for SAFETY during flooding, yet have also seen an unbelievable amount of footage of people standing, jumping and riding bicycles in flood waters from Ike!

People, PLEASE stay out of flood waters. I wish that footage of people this stupid would not be aired, but unfortunately seems to be good news content today. Hopefully you are not too easily influenced by the shirtless/witless few that seem to be dominating today's storm footage.

History Lesson

Missing most of the Cuba that would have weakened him considerably, Ike is still a pretty good looking hurricane and I expect will be impressing us even more by Wednesday evening when we expect the C4L Tracking Center will be really humming in expectation of a landfall that still remains fairly vague.

Like we discussed with Gustav, the Loop Current Eddy is going to play a role along with warmer temps and minimal shear; everything is in favor of Ike becoming a major hurricane.

The models are now showing Ike as a Cat 1 in Texas at landfall, but we are leaning toward a major hurricane at landfall based on water temps and surrounding conditions.

As for landfall location, I am not sold on the Texas targets being shown just yet; there is a loop current and a loop current eddy side by side that Ike will be encountering that I still think will shift him a tad bit northward than the models are showing. Texas should hope I am right as the coastline the models are forecasting as Ike’s target are extremely susceptible to large storm surge. I remember looking at the animated models for storm surge in Galveston during 2005 and was amazed at the projected flooding a simple hurricane can cause there. 9 out of 10 people that die in a hurricane are killed by storm surges. In 1900, the Galveston Hurricane struck as a Cat 4 and killed between 6000 and 12,000 people making it the deadliest hurricane to ever hit the United States.

There is in existence film of this storm, reportedly the OLDEST motion picture film of an occurrence like this in existence today.

Another cool fact? It was filmed by Thomas Edison’s employees!