Well, Jim Cantore is in Galveston and changed from his now-familiar black suit to the tight black tee...a bad sign for any city. As I watched him interview the Mayor of Galveston this evening, I chuckled as she ended the conversation by saying she was happy to see him in her town! Obviously she doesn't know how bad it really is when Jim shows up in a t-shirt.
Seriously, preparations are being made to make sure the C4L Tracking Center is ready for tomorrow night.
It has been a long day for those in Texas and things are not much better in Louisiana either. With some dry air off the west side of the Gulf, Ike has stayed a Cat 2 for now but by morning we should see a Cat 3 on its way to being a strong Cat 3 before it makes landfall near Galveston. Already coastal waves are near 9 feet and evacuations seem to be going smoothly according to the Mayor of the sea-bound city; an estimated 75% of the city having evacuated but is it enough?
I doubt it.
Galveston has a population of about 57,000. This means that 14,000 people could be staring out into the darkness tomorrow night as the ocean overcomes their city.
Once Ike nears Galveston, we will know for sure wether or not our predictions were correct; that Ike will strike just south and west of Galveston allowing that dangerous front quarter to raise sea level well beyond not only the sea wall but above the highest point on the island which is only 22 feet above sea level.
We have a lot to contend with here when it comes to surge: first, the winds inside of Ike mixed with the barometric pressure will create a strong surge; second, the storm should arrive just as high tide comes in the middle of Friday night raising sea levels even more.
With over 5 million people just the other side of galveston, evacuations, while running well may not be running well enough as Army Corps of Engineers models show a complete flooding of Galveston and much of the coastal inland.
Once again we are seeing folks simply taping windows and planning on staying, but the City of Galveston is taking a strong stance insisting that there will be no services offered or available for anyone choosing to stay.
Since I know firsthand what it is like to live on an island surrounded by coastal waterway and ocean, I also know how vulnerable you suddenly become with a storm bearing down on you, so I cannot believe folks are staying in Galveston. Should Ike cop an attitude and turn into a Cat 4 before landfall, we could be looking at a storm the likes of which we have only seen on "It Could Happen Tomorrow"!
Even as a Cat 3, this storm is looking like it will be the twin of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane (see earlier blogs) that killed between 6000 and 12000 people.
Our prayers arewith those that are in harm's way for sure.
As they say at the news desk, in other news...
Watch the gas pump prices now as prices have already jumped as much as 30% down south with 96% of the crude business shut down and over 70% of natural gas production has been shut down in the region.
Louisiana is taking a beating again from Ike with surge already effecting the lower parishes and we got a phone call from the Bootheel of Missouri about two hours ago about a series of reported tornadoes near Cabool and Springfield.
Speaking of tornadoes, we will be busy in the C4L Tracking Center starting tomorrow as we staff the center in full to track Ike and the tornadoes that are sure to follow him ashore late tomorrow night. Hopefully we can get the Tracking Center up on KHAS, but if not, stay here checking in and we will continue to post updates and we will attempt to post photos of the tracking center and its staff throughout the night.
If you are in the lower parishes of Louisiana, the coastal areas of Mississippi or near Galveston, please contact us at info@chasing4life.org and make sure you leave us your name, contact numbers and location and we will assign a tracker from the Center to stay in touch with you throughout the next 48 hours or so.
Special thanks to Jeff Masters for the surge model info he provided us yesterday.
