This morning we were discussing our hurricane predictions, as we tend to do over coffee during this season. With summer storms being so sporadic, we will attempt to forecast the direction and destination of tropical storms just to see how accurate we can be. It is a good exercise in reading and forecasting and keeps the blood flowing during the slower storm season here in the Midwest.
Today, Gustav hit Haiti as a category One, and as expected, this weakened the storm. What we expect is that Gustav will quickly strengthen and begin to follow a track into the Gulf. The storm forecasts seem to think that Gustav will go west and then Northwest into the Gulf over the next few days.
While the forecast is unclear as of yet as to Gustav’s landfall, we were making guesses this morning; guesses and estimates that ranged from the Panhandle of Florida to the Texas Coast. I believe that as long as Gustav enters the center of the Gulf, it will follow a north-northwest track through the warm waters I am seeing here at our Tracking Center; waters that are presently about 87.6 degrees up the middle of the Gulf to Louisiana.
While this is just an estimate at this time, and no real prediction that should cause concern, there are some facts that should be considered. First, the shear winds are low, allowing Gustav to really simmer over the warm waters of the Gulf, “feeding” if you will. Once Gustav passes Cuba, He will begin to “cook” in these warm waters as he heads into the deeper Gulf waters. If you remember Katrina and Rita, these storms followed that warm water to the coast of Louisiana. I can see this “line” of warm water now, and would expect that this would be he “road” to travel.
We saw waters like this with Hurricane Charley who of course, headed right into Florida, but Katrina and Rita were caught up in this current of warm water almost as if it they were being “sucked” northward. We now have a Loop current of this water just south of New Orleans which is leading me to think that preparedness should once again be on the minds of our friends and family members along the Gulf Coast.
Today, Gustav hit Haiti as a category One, and as expected, this weakened the storm. What we expect is that Gustav will quickly strengthen and begin to follow a track into the Gulf. The storm forecasts seem to think that Gustav will go west and then Northwest into the Gulf over the next few days.
While the forecast is unclear as of yet as to Gustav’s landfall, we were making guesses this morning; guesses and estimates that ranged from the Panhandle of Florida to the Texas Coast. I believe that as long as Gustav enters the center of the Gulf, it will follow a north-northwest track through the warm waters I am seeing here at our Tracking Center; waters that are presently about 87.6 degrees up the middle of the Gulf to Louisiana.
While this is just an estimate at this time, and no real prediction that should cause concern, there are some facts that should be considered. First, the shear winds are low, allowing Gustav to really simmer over the warm waters of the Gulf, “feeding” if you will. Once Gustav passes Cuba, He will begin to “cook” in these warm waters as he heads into the deeper Gulf waters. If you remember Katrina and Rita, these storms followed that warm water to the coast of Louisiana. I can see this “line” of warm water now, and would expect that this would be he “road” to travel.
We saw waters like this with Hurricane Charley who of course, headed right into Florida, but Katrina and Rita were caught up in this current of warm water almost as if it they were being “sucked” northward. We now have a Loop current of this water just south of New Orleans which is leading me to think that preparedness should once again be on the minds of our friends and family members along the Gulf Coast.
A few more days will add accuracy to my guesses, so for now, with less than a 40% chance of anything really worth watching around the home front…we’ll keep an eye on Gustav.
