It's a good song by the Scorpions, but not such a happy thought for those along the coastlines...
In its August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released midweek, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center projected an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season - up from 65 percent in May.
The forecasters say they adjusted their prediction due to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development combined with the strong early season activity.
The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms.
Seven to 10 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges encompass the entire hurricane season, which ends November 30, and include the five storms that have formed already.
In May, the outlook only called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very active July, the third most active since 1886. The NOAA forecast is in line with a new prediction of increased hurricane activity from meteorologists at Colorado State University. By the numbers, the Colorado forecasters differ somewhat from the NOAA predictions, but the general trend is the same.
NOAA's hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches.
Government weather forecasters said this week that they expect two more named storms and hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Basin this year than they predicted in May, and warned of an increased likelihood that 2008 will be an above-normal hurricane season.
In its August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, released midweek, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center projected an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season - up from 65 percent in May.
The forecasters say they adjusted their prediction due to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development combined with the strong early season activity.
The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms.
Seven to 10 of those storms are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges encompass the entire hurricane season, which ends November 30, and include the five storms that have formed already.
In May, the outlook only called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very active July, the third most active since 1886. The NOAA forecast is in line with a new prediction of increased hurricane activity from meteorologists at Colorado State University. By the numbers, the Colorado forecasters differ somewhat from the NOAA predictions, but the general trend is the same.
NOAA's hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches.
As we mentioned, five named storms have formed so far this season. Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm on record, lasting from July 3 through 20. Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline. Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 25 with 120 mile per hour winds and heavy rain. And just a week ago on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast.
If you have relatives or friends along the coastlines, make sure they have a disaster plan for this year and a way to stay in contact with you as these storms continue to form.
